Irak Savaşı Kayıpları

Irak'taki çatışmaya bağlı kayıpların tahminleri (2003 Irak işgali ile başlayan ve işgal ve ayaklanma devam eden) çeşitli biçimlerde ortaya çıkmıştır ve farklı Irak Savaşı kayıplarına ilişkin tahminler büyük farklılıklar göstermektedir.

Savaşla ilgili ölümleri tahmin etmek birçok zorluğu beraberinde getiriyor.^[1]^[2] Uzmanlar, nüfusun rastgele örneklerinden ortaya çıkan nüfus temelli çalışmalar ile ölümcül sayıları bildiren ve muhtemelen kayıpları önemli ölçüde hafife alan ceset sayımları arasında ayrım yapıyor.^[3] Nüfus temelli çalışmalar, Haziran 2006'dan itibaren (Irak Aile Sağlığı Araştırması başına) 151.000 şiddetli ölümden (2007 Görüş Araştırma İşletmesi (ORB) araştırmasına göre) bir milyondan fazla Irak Savaşı kayıplarının tahminlerini vermektedir. Farklı zaman aralıklarını kapsayan diğer anket temelli çalışmalar, Haziran 2011 itibarıyla (PLOS Medicine 2013 başına) 461.000 toplam ölüm (% 60'ından fazla şiddet içeren) ve Haziran 2006 itibarıyla toplam 655.000 toplam ölüm (% 90'dan fazla şiddetli) bulmaktadır (2006 Lancet çalışmasına göre). Ceset sayımları, 2009 yılı Nisan ayından itibaren en az 110.600 şiddetli ölüm saymıştır . Irak Ceset Sayımı projesi Nisan 2019'a kadar 183.348 - 205.908 şiddetli sivil ölümünü belgeliyor. Irak Savaşı kayıplarına ilişkin tüm tahminler tartışmalı.^[4]^[5]

Tablolar değiştir

Aşağıdaki tablolar Irak'ta meydana gelen kayıplara ilişkin raporları özetlemektedir.

Bilimsel araştırmalar:

Kaynak	Tahmini şiddetli ölümler	Zaman dilimi
Irak Aile Sağlığı Araştırması	151.000 şiddetli ölüm	Mart 2003 - Haziran 2006
Lancet araştırması	654.965 ölüm üzerinden 601.027 şiddetli ölüm	Mart 2003 - Haziran 2006
PLOS Araştırması ^[4]	Savaşın doğrudan veya dolaylı olarak Irak'taki 460.000 ölüm, doğrudan şiddete atfedilebilen ölümlerin % 60'ından fazlasını içermektedir.	Mart 2003 - Haziran 2011

Ceset sayımları:

Kaynak	Şiddetten belgelenen ölümler	Zaman dilimi
İlişkili basın	110.600 şiddetli ölüm.	Mart 2003 - Nisan 2009
Irak Ceset Sayım projesi	183.535 - 206.107 şiddetli sivil ölümleri.	Mart 2003 - Nisan 2019
Gizli Irak Savaş Kayıtları	66.081 sivilin ölümü dahil 109.032 ölüm.^[6]	Ocak 2004 - Aralık 2009

Genel Bakış: Iraklıların ölümleri Irak Savaşı'nın kayıplarının özeti baz alınarak tahmin ediliyor. Irak'ın işgali ve işgalinde öldürülen insanların sayısı ile ilgili olası tahminler çok çeşitlidir, ve oldukça tartışmalıdır.

Kaynakça değiştir

^ Wang (8-14 Ekim 2014). "Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015". The Lancet. 388 (10053). ss. 1459-1544. Indeed, it has been challenging to accurately document the number of casualties from wars and deaths resulting from malnutrition, infections, or disruption in health services during wars.
^ Adhikari (16-22 Ekim 2010). "Critical care and the global burden of critical illness in adults". The Lancet. 376 (9749). ss. 1339-1346. However, during times of war, we should remember that evidence from systematic household cluster sampling suggests that most excess deaths, and, by extension, most demands for intensive care, do not arise from violence but from medical disorders resulting from the breakdown of public health infrastructure (eg, cholera), or from the discontinuation of treatment of chronic diseases caused by interruption of pharmaceutical supplies.
^ Tapp (7 Mart 2008). "Iraq War mortality estimates: A systematic review". Conflict and Health. 2 (1). s. 1. Of the population-based studies, the Roberts and Burnham studies provided the most rigorous methodology as their primary outcome was mortality. Their methodology is similar to the consensus methods of the SMART initiative, a series of methodological recommendations for conducting research in humanitarian emergencies. [...] However, not surprisingly their studies have been roundly criticized given the political consequences of their findings and the inherent security and political problems of conducting this type of research. Some of these criticisms refer to the type of sampling, duration of interviews, the potential for reporting bias, the reliability of its pre-war estimates, and a lack of reproducibility. The study authors have acknowledged their study limitations and responded to these criticisms in detail elsewhere. They now also provide their data for reanalysis to qualified groups for further review, if requested. [...] The IBC was largely established as an activist response to US refusals to conduct mortality counts. This account, however, is problematic as it relies solely on news reports that would likely considerably underestimate the total mortality.
^ ^a ^b Hagopian (15 Ekim 2013). "Mortality in Iraq Associated with the 2003–2011 War and Occupation: Findings from a National Cluster Sample Survey by the University Collaborative Iraq Mortality Study". PLoS Medicine. 10 (10). ss. e1001533.
^ Levy (Mart 2016). "Documenting the Effects of Armed Conflict on Population Health". Annual Review of Public Health. Cilt 37. ss. 205-218. Although the Roberts and Burnham studies faced some criticism in the news media and elsewhere, part of which may have been politically motivated, these studies have been widely viewed among peers as the most rigorous investigations of Iraq War–related mortality among Iraqi civilians; we agree with this assessment and believe that the Hagopian study is also scientifically rigorous. Although the methodology and results in the four studies cited here have varied somewhat, it is clear that the Iraq War caused, directly and indirectly, a very large number of deaths among Iraqi civilians—which, in fact, may have been underestimated by these scientifically conservative studies. A paper by Tapp and colleagues and a recent report by three country affiliates of the International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War have extensively reviewed these four epidemiological studies as well as other studies that attempted to assess the impact of the Iraq War on morbidity and mortality.
^ "The WikiLeaks Iraq War Logs: Greatest Data Leak in US Military History". Der Spiegel. 22 Ekim 2010. 23 Ekim 2010 tarihinde kaynağından arşivlendi. Erişim tarihi: 23 Ekim 2010.

[Wang_et_al_2016-1] Wang (8-14 Ekim 2014). "Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015". The Lancet. 388 (10053). ss. 1459-1544. Indeed, it has been challenging to accurately document the number of casualties from wars and deaths resulting from malnutrition, infections, or disruption in health services during wars.

[Adhikari_et_al_2010-2] Adhikari (16-22 Ekim 2010). "Critical care and the global burden of critical illness in adults". The Lancet. 376 (9749). ss. 1339-1346. However, during times of war, we should remember that evidence from systematic household cluster sampling suggests that most excess deaths, and, by extension, most demands for intensive care, do not arise from violence but from medical disorders resulting from the breakdown of public health infrastructure (eg, cholera), or from the discontinuation of treatment of chronic diseases caused by interruption of pharmaceutical supplies.

[Tapp_et_al_2008-3] Tapp (7 Mart 2008). "Iraq War mortality estimates: A systematic review". Conflict and Health. 2 (1). s. 1. Of the population-based studies, the Roberts and Burnham studies provided the most rigorous methodology as their primary outcome was mortality. Their methodology is similar to the consensus methods of the SMART initiative, a series of methodological recommendations for conducting research in humanitarian emergencies. [...] However, not surprisingly their studies have been roundly criticized given the political consequences of their findings and the inherent security and political problems of conducting this type of research. Some of these criticisms refer to the type of sampling, duration of interviews, the potential for reporting bias, the reliability of its pre-war estimates, and a lack of reproducibility. The study authors have acknowledged their study limitations and responded to these criticisms in detail elsewhere. They now also provide their data for reanalysis to qualified groups for further review, if requested. [...] The IBC was largely established as an activist response to US refusals to conduct mortality counts. This account, however, is problematic as it relies solely on news reports that would likely considerably underestimate the total mortality.

[Hagopian-4] Hagopian (15 Ekim 2013). "Mortality in Iraq Associated with the 2003–2011 War and Occupation: Findings from a National Cluster Sample Survey by the University Collaborative Iraq Mortality Study". PLoS Medicine. 10 (10). ss. e1001533.

[Levy_Sidel_2016-5] Levy (Mart 2016). "Documenting the Effects of Armed Conflict on Population Health". Annual Review of Public Health. Cilt 37. ss. 205-218. Although the Roberts and Burnham studies faced some criticism in the news media and elsewhere, part of which may have been politically motivated, these studies have been widely viewed among peers as the most rigorous investigations of Iraq War–related mortality among Iraqi civilians; we agree with this assessment and believe that the Hagopian study is also scientifically rigorous. Although the methodology and results in the four studies cited here have varied somewhat, it is clear that the Iraq War caused, directly and indirectly, a very large number of deaths among Iraqi civilians—which, in fact, may have been underestimated by these scientifically conservative studies. A paper by Tapp and colleagues and a recent report by three country affiliates of the International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War have extensively reviewed these four epidemiological studies as well as other studies that attempted to assess the impact of the Iraq War on morbidity and mortality.

[spiegel-6] "The WikiLeaks Iraq War Logs: Greatest Data Leak in US Military History". Der Spiegel. 22 Ekim 2010. 23 Ekim 2010 tarihinde kaynağından arşivlendi. Erişim tarihi: 23 Ekim 2010.

[1]

[2]

[3]

[4]

[5]

[6]